India has set a target of energy independence by 2047. To achieve this, it is imperative to attain energy independence in the mobility sector given the high reliance on imported fossil fuels. A recently published report by RMI titled “India at 2047: A Vision for Energy Independence in the Mobility Sector”, takes a look at the country’s current status and future projections in this space.
Renewable Watch shares the key findings and suggestions shared in the report.
Key findings
According to the report, for India to achieve energy independence by 2047 in the mobility sector, the country will need to attain 100 per cent clean fuel vehicle sales penetration (primarily electric vehicles) in all vehicle segments by 2043.
For this transition to happen in the mobility sector, the country needs to reduce crude oil consumption by 91 per cent by 2047 (leading to an estimated cumulative saving of Rs 160 trillion and a reduction of 14 gigatonnes of carbon emissions), as well as cut 57 per cent of its energy demand and 87 per cent of carbon emissions in the road transport sector
by 2047.
Several key focus areas have been identified to transition India’s mobility sector to a clean, energy-independent system, accompanied by a reduction in energy demand, carbon emissions mitigation, and the adoption of clean fuel technologies. Two scenarios have been analysed in the report: Progress-as-Usual (PAU) and Energy Independence (EI). In the former, the current EV penetration trends have been used to project future EV adoption rates. The EI scenario focuses on no crude oil and gas imports beyond 2047. This is due to aggressive EV penetration through ambitious strategies. The results for these two scenarios are as follows.
Energy demand from road transport sector: In the PAU scenario, energy demand from road transport is projected to double by 2047, with 84 per cent of this demand met by crude oil and gas. Conversely, the EI scenario envisions a reduction in crude oil reliance to 28 per cent by 2047, with 65 per cent of the energy demand met through electricity. This scenario emphasises efficiency gains in clean vehicle technologies, a shift towards rail and public transportation, and a drop in energy demand due to improved efficiency of clean vehicle technologies.
Crude oil and gas requirements: Under the EI scenario, India’s crude oil consumption for the mobility sector would be reduced by 91 per cent, with gas requirements peaking in 2035 and gradually declining thereafter. This shift aligns with India’s strategy to raise the share of gas in its energy mix as a transition fuel before clean fuel vehicles dominate. Conversely, the PAU case will have a nearly 50 per cent increase in total primary crude oil consumption and over fourfold increase in gas consumption by 2047.
Carbon dioxide reduction: If India reaches its peak carbon emissions by 2030s and the emission level gradually falls to 191 million tonnes, it could avoid nearly 14 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide emissions between 2024 and 2047 through the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and clean energy technologies. This would significantly contribute to the country’s commitment to combating climate change and meeting its global climate goals as well as decrease carbon emissions by 87 per cent. However, if we continue at the current rate, the energy-related CO2 emissions from the mobility sector will continue to rise until the late 2040s and reach more than twice the
current levels.
Roadmap
To ensure India reaches energy independence by 2047 in the mobility sector, the report has shared some recommendations for the near term (2024-30) and long term (beyond 2030). In the near term, starting from 2026, a possible zero emission vehicle (ZEV) sales mandate could be introduced for large- and intermediate-volume automakers, covering two-, three-, and four-wheeler vehicles. By 2028, Bharat Stage emission standards may be aligned with Euro 7, along with updates to CAFE-III standards to potentially enforce stricter fuel efficiency norms for two- and three-wheelers, as well as medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. Between 2024 and 2030, there is the possibility of extending FAME-like subsidies to include truck segments, with incentives for electric medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks by 2025. In addition, national policies that penalise high-emission vehicles through higher registration fees, environmental taxes, or scrappage incentives should be implemented.
Going forward, the country will need to install approximately 1.9 million public charging points by 2040 to support the extensive shift to EVs. This will be possible through more funds and financing. An estimated Rs 980 million will be required cumulatively for a complete transition to EVs. To support the financing of EVs, development banks need to provide concessional loans to non-banking financial companies to make EV financing and charging infrastructure investments more affordable. Additionally, partial credit guarantees may be introduced to reduce risks for financiers, thus encouraging private capital investment in EV-related businesses. By 2030, updated national guidelines could be introduced to safely manage the collection, transportation, and recycling of lithium-ion batteries, mitigating environmental hazards. There might also be efforts to formalise second-life applications for used batteries, such as in stationary storage solutions, supported by regulatory standards. Finally, a potential production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme might promote the manufacturing of electric two- and three-wheelers in India with a target of 60 per cent localised production. To further support the domestic EV industry, tax credits and R&D grants could be offered for the production of key components such as battery management systems and semiconductors.
By 2030 and beyond, stricter ZEV mandates for light-, medium-, and heavy-duty goods vehicles with annual adjustments to sales targets will be an important feature. Going forward, India should aim to align fleet-wide emission standards with global norms, targeting zero tailpipe emissions across all vehicle segments by 2047.
In the long term, beyond 2030, efforts should be focused on expanding EV infrastructure in smaller towns and rural areas, with state-specific targets for EV adoption. The development of smart, autonomous charging systems that optimise energy use and align EV demand with low-cost electricity is a major goal. By 2047, the grid aims to achieve 85 per cent clean energy, with all charging and battery-swapping stations powered entirely by renewable energy sources. Virtual net metering could also be implemented for EV chargers, allowing shared access to renewable energy across communities and businesses. In terms of sustainability, large-scale battery recycling facilities could be built, with tax breaks and PLI schemes to encourage investment in recycling infrastructure. Recycled content targets for new battery production may be updated, to enable wider use by 2040.
By 2030, India may transition 15-20 per cent of its two- and three-wheeler exports, as well as 10 per cent of bus exports, to electric models, with a goal to increase these shares to 50 per cent by 2040. According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, the country’s current exports are nearly 20 per cent of its two-wheeler and 50 per cent of its three-wheeler production. Between 2024 and 2047, the country is expected to be on track to export 86 million two-wheelers and 36 million electric three-wheelers, transition 50 per cent of the total export to EVs by 2047, and achieve a cumulative market value of Rs 27.87 trillion.
Furthermore, targets for EV exports may be set to position the country as a leading EV exporter by 2047, supported by innovation in research and development.
Net, net, India’s vision of energy independence by 2047, particularly in the mobility sector, is bold. The government has already laid the groundwork through initiatives such as the FAME scheme and the PLI scheme for advanced chemistry cell batteries. However, to fully realise this vision, sustained efforts will be required across multiple fronts, from policy implementation to technological innovation and public-private collaboration.
Achieving energy independence is not just an economic imperative; it is a critical step towards environmental sustainability and public health improvement. By transitioning to electric mobility, India can reduce emissions, foster innovation, and create a cleaner, more prosperous future.
