India faces a wide range of energy challenges, which has prompted state governments to reform their energy systems. The primary areas of focus include ensuring energy supply, enhancing energy security, improving access to power and ensuring the availability of clean cooking fuels and technology. These adjustments are essential for fulfilling the national and international climate change commitments outlined in the Nationally Determined Contributions. Furthermore, these initiatives support the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, particularly for providing citizens access to modern, cheap and sustainable energy. Addressing these issues requires a thorough revamp of the whole energy sector, spanning from energy production to end-use.
This transition can be accomplished by substituting low-carbon technologies for conventional energy generation methods, significantly increasing the proportion of renewable energy sources in the energy mix and improving energy efficiency across a range of industries. The widespread adoption of low-carbon energy technology is essential for meeting the growing energy demands, providing widespread electricity access and promoting economic growth in rapidly developing areas.
In this context, the state government of Goa recently unveiled the Clean Energy Roadmap – a blueprint for assessing Goa’s existing energy environment in terms of supply, demand, consumption trends and available energy resources and offering a path to future transformation. Renewable Watch examines the roadmap’s key takeaways…
Goa – An overview
Goa has the potential to move towards a 100 per cent renewable energy trajectory because it is a relatively small state with plenty of natural resources, including renewables, and a lower energy demand as compared to larger Indian states. Goa can transition from a high-emission to a low-carbon route by harnessing its renewable energy sources. Despite its small size, Goa has a per capita income 3.5 times higher than the national average, and double the national average per capita electricity consumption. Moreover, the state’s per capita automobile ownership rate is three times greater than the national norm, increasing its per capita emissions. This predicament calls for a shift towards low-carbon routes while also aligning with the state’s objectives for development.
It is projected that Goa’s final energy demand will increase by 46.8 PJ from 2020 to 166.1 PJ in 2050, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3 per cent. Oil currently constitutes 62 per cent of the state’s total final energy consumption, with electricity coming in at 22.7 per cent and biomass at 9.9 per cent. However, it is expected that this composition will change, with oil accounting for 47 per cent of fuels in 2050 and electricity dominating at 48.7 per cent. Further, it is anticipated that the share of coal in the total energy consumption will remain constant at 2 per cent between 2020 and 2050.
In 2020, transportation accounted for a majority of energy consumption (57.2 per cent), followed by industries (13.7 per cent) and buildings (14 per cent). Due to ongoing industrial development and advancements in energy efficiency, it is anticipated that industrial energy consumption will rise to 22.2 per cent by 2050. Transportation will continue to be the highest energy-consuming industry, increasing at a CAGR of 3.2 per cent from 26.7 PJ in 2020 to 69.7 PJ by 2050.
Without governmental interventions, Goa’s fuel consumption pattern suggests a continuous reliance on emissive fuels such as coal, liquid hydrocarbons and gaseous hydrocarbons. However, renewable energy is steadily taking on a bigger role in supporting grid power, enhancing energy access, lowering the consumption of fossil fuels, and assisting Goa in its pursuit of a low-carbon growth trajectory.
100 per cent renewable energy in Goa
The government of Goa has set a goal to achieve 100 per cent renewable energy utilisation across all sectors in the state by 2050. To achieve a complete transition to renewable electricity supply in Goa imported electricity in the state will play a critical role, closely followed by the deployment of new solar capacity within the state. According to the outlined strategy, over 60 per cent of the state’s power needs will be met by imports via various approaches, such as power exchanges and bilateral PPAs. Projections suggest that the state should aim to establish around 4 GW of solar power facilities by 2050, spanning a range of types such as ground-mounted, floating, and agro-photovoltaic systems. Currently, external sources are employed to fulfil the solar renewable purchase obligation. The state has a modest wind energy potential of about 1 MW at an 80 metre mast height, whereas onshore wind has an estimated potential of 9 MW at a height of 120 metres. Therefore, enhancing locally owned renewable capacity is essential for expanding the state’s supply of renewable energy.
It is anticipated that by 2050 over 75 per cent of Goa’s electricity needs will be fulfilled by imported renewable energy sources due to the specific composition of generation capacity required to attain a 100 per cent renewable power supply. Indigenous sources such as solar, wind, biomass, and tidal energy will contribute to the remaining 25 per cent. In 2020, the percentage of power produced in the state stood at 4 per cent, with the majority coming from cogeneration units operated by private sector entities. In order to maximise the potential of renewable resources in the state, a 100 per cent renewable energy supply transition should be achieved.
Navigating sector-wise clean energy transition
With the majority of its energy needs being satisfied by fossil fuels such as diesel and thermal grid power, Goa’s agricultural sector currently relies significantly on carbon-intensive practices. The sector consumed 0.18 PJ of energy in 2020 for farming activities, including irrigation, which was entirely derived from fossil fuels. The decarbonization of the state’s agriculture industry will primarily be accomplished through the integration of three major energy sources: blended diesel (B-20), green grid electricity, and solar pumps and off-grid systems, including decentralised solar PV. By 2050, this energy mix is expected to replace over half of the current fossil fuel consumption. The agricultural sector is also anticipated to incorporate approximately 38,200 solar pumps with an average capacity of 5 HP by 2050, necessitating continual investments to solarise irrigation pumps. It is estimated that an expenditure of Rs 1.5 billion will be required to establish solarised irrigation pumping in the state.
In 2020, Goa’s total final energy consumption was made up primarily of residential and commercial structures. As a result of the state’s plans to increase tourism, commercial buildings are predicted to experience a higher rate of energy consumption growth, at 8 per cent annually, compared to residential buildings (7 per cent annually). As a result, establishments such as hotels, malls, hospitals and educational institutions will consume more energy. By 2050, the average annual growth rate for tourism (based on the previous five years) is predicted to be 3 per cent, which would result in a 145 GWh peak in hotel power demand.
The construction sector will rely on three primary energy sources to achieve a 100 per cent transition to renewable energy: solar thermal for hot water systems, off-grid solar utilisation, and green grid power. By 2050, this combination may completely replace the reliance on fossil fuels. Moreover, with a projected 3 GW capacity, the state is expected to utilise all of its rooftop solar potential. Installing rooftop solar systems on commercial buildings will cost approximately Rs 3.37 billion annually, compared to Rs 4.5 billion annually for residential structures. Consequently, between 2022 and 2050, initiatives for solarising commercial building rooftops will require an expenditure of Rs 57 billion, while residential structures will require an investment of approximately Rs 90 billion.
A significant disparity exists between urban and rural households in Goa in terms of the amount of energy consumed on cooking. In 2020, cooking energy accounted for approximately 13 per cent of the state’s total energy consumption, with a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) penetration ratio of around 145 per cent, indicating ubiquitous LPG availability. Of this, rural households consume 52 per cent, while urban households utilise 48 per cent. To accomplish sectoral decarbonisation, energy demand is expected to decrease from 6.3 PJ in 2020 to 2.4 PJ by 2050, attributed to the implementation of efficient cooking technologies and high-energy-content fuels. Biogas and electricity are expected to be Goa’s principal transition fuels, with biogas consumption predicted to reach 2 PJ and electricity utilisation expected to reach 0.41 PJ by 2050.
Going forward, meeting the demand for cooking energy will necessitate approximately 50 million m3 of biogas, while the cost of delivering electric cooking apparatus, such as induction stoves, to households could exceed Rs 0.25 billion per year by 2050.
Due to favourable measures in the industry, industrial energy consumption in Goa is anticipated to rise from over 19 per cent in 2020 to approximately 23 per cent by 2050. The industrial energy demand is anticipated to increase by 6 per cent annually as Goa strives to establish itself as a prominent industrial hub in western India. Electricity, oil, and coal will remain the primary components of the energy mix for the foreseeable future. By 2050, biomass is expected to play a significant part in the sector’s decarbonization, constituting 37 per cent of industrial energy, while 63 per cent of the energy will come from renewable electricity sources. Moreover, the shift from coal and oil is expected to result in a 9.5 MtCO2 decrease between 2020 and 2050.
The primary energy-consuming sector in Goa is transportation, which accounted for 57 per cent of the state’s energy consumption in 2020. However, due to an increase in the number of vehicles and the adoption of low-carbon technology, this sector’s share is predicted to fall to 42 per cent by 2050. With the implementation of low-carbon technologies and emission-free fuels, the share of transport energy could drop even further to 37.6 per cent by 2050. Electric vehicles are anticipated to dominate the passenger market, while the freight market will require various fuel blends, with blended fuels such as ethanol and biodiesel playing a significant role in both segments. Electric vehicles could potentially cut the energy demand share by 4.5 per cent by 2050. The transition towards renewable fuels could reduce emissions by approximately 15 MtCO2 between 2020 and 2050, owing mostly to the electrification of two-wheelers, vehicles and taxis. However, given the lack of viable substitutes for aviation fuel, it is likely that fossil fuels will continue to be a necessity for air travel.
The fishery industry in Goa consumes 0.9 per cent of the state’s total energy, primarily reliant on diesel and petrol for fishing operations. In order to achieve a fully renewable fishery, blended fuel (20 per cent biofuel blending) has been suggested for fishing activities, potentially leading to annual savings of up to 3,200 KL of diesel or petrol from the present usage of approximately 16,000 KL. The roadmap calls for the adoption of blended fuel for fishing boats, utilising 20 per cent of biofuel blends for various fishing vehicles, and achieving 100 per cent green power utilisation for all post-harvest activities, including cold storage. Furthermore, the imperative to decarbonise the industry is highlighted by the fact that increased production will inevitably result in an increase in energy consumption.
When formulating a comprehensive multi-sector strategy for the region, it is essential to develop an energy action plan for the state and outline a clear set of responsibilities for execution. The accomplishment of the project hinges on providing the state with the necessary resources – both financial and human – to effectively carry out the proposed measures. In essence, energy planning remains incomplete without concurrent financial and human resource planning. Recognising this crucial aspect, the study assessed the resource requirements in Goa till 2050. In order to transform the state into an ecologically conscious one and stimulate job creation, the study also examined the potential societal repercussions of adopting a significant amount of renewable energy in the state.
According to the estimate, implementing a 100 per cent renewable energy strategy in Goa could generate more than 15,000 jobs over the course of five years. Notably, this could result in the creation of 500 new positions per year within the state, specifically devoted to the generation of solar and wind energy. However, the state must allocate a substantial expenditure exceeding Rs 1,332 billion between 2020 and 2050 to achieve the 100 per cent renewable energy objective. This annual investment requirement roughly equates to 5.6 per cent of the state’s GDP at the present pricing during fiscal year 2020-21, amounting to approximately Rs 44 billion.
Investments are expected to be significantly larger in the latter two decades of the projected time frame (after 2040) than in the first two decades, from 2021 to 2040. This temporal distribution provides an opportunity to establish a cost-effective financial system within the state that can frugally achieve the target of 100 per cent renewable energy. Additionally, certain investments that are sector-specific show cyclical tendencies. For instance, significant upfront capital expenditure is needed for purchasing vehicles that align with the objective for investments in freight transport, which principally involves the integration of electric heavy-duty trucks. Due to the 15-year lifespan of cars, these investments will recur every 15 years, as will be seen from 2030 through 2046. It is crucial to note that these investment expenditures only cover costs associated with engineering, procurement and construction, along with the transition of technologies. They exclude other infrastructure costs that are necessary for technological operation, such as the cost of setting up electric vehicle charging stations.
Consequently, the success of the energy strategy and its action plan depends on their practical execution, considering the complexities associated with project financing and finding the right human resources. The plan should be thoroughly understood, and the execution process assiduously monitored, in order to aid Goa in achieving the desired goal by 2050.
By Kasvi Singh