Although it is the only ASEAN country (of 10 nations) that has not set a net zero target, the Philippines aims to increase the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in its electricity mix to 35 per cent by 2030 and 50 per cent by 2040 (from over 16 per cent currently). It also plans to interconnect its islands through a unified electricity grid to enhance power sharing and optimise generation.
This requires substantial investment in the transmission infrastructure, which is managed and operated by the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP). On its part, the NGCP has maintained its commitment to improving and expanding the country’s network. Between 2009 and 2024, the NGCP added 5,475 ckt km of transmission lines and 40,495 MVA of substation capacity.
In March 2025, the NGCP outlined its future plans for further investment in the grid in its latest Transmission Development Plan (TDP) 2025-50, which revises the previous 2024 version with new data and strategies, aligning with the government’s RES targets. It includes projects worth about PhP 485.2 billion, which will result in transformation capacity of an addition of another 2,148 ckt km and 23,325 MVA by 2034. The 2024 version had already identified projects worth PhP 621 billion, including lines and substation capacity aggregating around 3,000 ckt km and 40,300 MVA, respectively. Therefore, the NGCP has outlined plans for projects worth over PhP 1.1 trillion for the next decade.
The latest TDP uses the Department of Energy’ (DOE) system peak demand forecast and generation capacity additions and integrates policies on RES and smart grids, while consulting stakeholders to ensure that the plan meets national energy goals. This is in line with the Electric Power Industry Reform Act of 2001, which mandates that the NGCP submit a TDP for approval by the DOE. This TDP is then integrated into the DOE’s Power Development Plan and the Philippine Energy Plan, which guide infrastructure investments and modernisation efforts crucial for expanding the transmission network and supporting clean energy transition.
Renewable Watch presents key highlights of the Philippines’ existing energy infrastructure and future plans outlined in the NGCP’s latest TDP…
Existing infrastructure
The Philippines had an installed generation capacity of 30,487 MW as of February 28, 2025. Coal accounted for the largest share at 13,006 MW or around 43 per cent of the installed capacity, followed by natural gas and oil, which accounted for 3,732 MW (12 per cent) and 3,448 MW (11 per cent), respectively. The remaining 34 per cent was contributed by renewable energy – 3,836 MW of hydro, 2,857 MW of solar, 1,952 MW of geothermal, 427 MW of wind, 595 MW of biomass and 634 MW of energy storage systems (ESSs). Region-wise, Luzon accounts for the majority of the capacity at over 74 per cent (21,742 MW), followed by Mindanao (16 per cent) and Visayas (14 per cent).
As of December 2024, the country’s power transmission network comprised 23,110 ckt km of transmission lines, 58,653 MVA of substation capacity and 215 substations distributed across voltages of 69 kV to 500 kV AC and ±350 kV high voltage direct current (HVDC). Similar to the generation infrastructure, the national transmission system is divided into three main regional grids – Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
Future demand and capacity expansion
The total national system peak demand forecast is estimated to grow by over 2.5 times over the next 15 years from 20,669 MW in 2025 to 53,679 MW in 2040, with interim estimates of 28,631 MW in 2030 and 39,506 MW in 2035.
The DOE’s energy outlook has two scenarios for the country’s energy transition – the reference scenario and the clean energy scenario, reflecting the current energy policies and the potential of aggressive clean energy targets within the planning horizon, respectively. The Philippines has several committed power plant projects extending beyond 2030. As of October 2024, a committed capacity of 17,249 MW is expected to be connected to the grid. Of this, over 53 per cent is expected to be from RES, led by solar (5,976 MW) and wind (2,125 MW), 35.2 per cent (6,070 MW) from natural gas sources and 11.7 per cent (2,026 MW) will be coal- and oil-based. Additionally, the DOE has identified over 94,823 MW of indicative capacity that could potentially be integrated into the grid in the future. Over 90 per cent of the capacity will be from RES, especially wind (65,896 MW), solar (12,122 MW) and hydropower (7,316 MW), along with around 7 per cent (7,148 MW) based on natural gas. The indicative list includes 34,717 MW of offshore wind (OSW) projects (across Luzon and Visayas), which is 37 per cent of the total capacity.
To achieve green targets, the government has put in place schemes such as the green energy auction programme (GEAP), which promotes private sector participation, while the Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZs) framework helps identify areas with high RES potential and reduce deployment barriers by streamlining permitting and other procedures.
While the projected grid capacity appears sufficient until 2035, the NGCP has flagged concerns over the low realisation rate of committed and indicative power plants. Only 28 per cent of the committed and indicative power projects between 2020 and 2024 (as per the Private Sector Initiated Power Projects report of June 2020) reached commercial operation as of October 2024. Further, for committed projects to obtain grid connectivity, they must be included in the NGCP’s planning horizon and undergo a necessary system impact study (SIS). This study is a prerequisite for determining the plant’s connection point to the grid, assessing the grid’s capacity to accommodate new generation and identifying necessary transmission infrastructure upgrades. However, around 30 per cent of the committed projects to be commissioned between 2025 and 2027 remain without SIS, which indicates that their timelines may be further pushed.
Transmission expansion
As per its latest TDP, by 2034, the NGCP aims to add approximately 5,145 km of transmission lines and 63,625 MVA of transformation capacity at the 69 kV to 500 kV voltage levels, with an investment of PhP 1,106 billion. This excludes an additional investment of over PhP 86.6 billion and PhP 39 billion planned for the operations and maintenance of the transmission network and for system operations up to 2050.
In terms of grid projects, the NGCP’s highest investment will be in strengthening the Luzon grid. Notably, in the initial five years, the focus will be on projects that support the adequacy and reliability of supply to Metro Manila (the country’s centre of commerce and trade), and accommodate generation capacities in the province of Batangas and in the Bataan and Zambales areas. This includes the development of the 230 kV Taguig-Taytay line and the installation of three 500/230 kV substations around Metro Manila to be complemented by 230/115 kV substations. To address the forecasted load growth in other areas, several 230 kV substations have been planned (including Lal-lo, Pinili, San Simon, Porac, Capas, Castillejos and Abuyog). The PhP 90.6 billion 500 kV Batangas-Mindoro interconnection and backbone project will be implemented in two stages to link Mindoro Island to the Luzon grid through submarine and overhead lines and to enhance the transfer capacity of the link to support the integration of solar and onshore wind in CREZ and OSW projects coming up in the area between Mindoro and Panay islands. Further, the 500 kV Tuy-Silang line and Tuy substation will be developed to accommodate the generation capacities in Batangas, which will complete the 500 kV Metro Manila backbone loop.
Beyond 2030, the focus will be on extending the 500 kV transmission backbone from Nagsaag to Santiago and adding new 500 kV substations in Palauig and Tagkawayan, besides upgrading ageing transmission facilities and improving system reliability in the Luzon grid. In the long run, the 500 kV backbone will be extended to Tublijon in the south to accommodate onshore wind and OSW capacities.
In Visayas, new submarine cables (at 138 kV and 230 kV) will be laid to link the Boracay, Guimaras and Bohol islands; Cebu and Leyte islands; and Cebu and Mactan islands to accommodate the growth in demand and utilise excess generation, particularly from Leyte and Luzon islands. The 138 kV backbones will also be strengthened to integrate upcoming large power plants in northern Samar, northern Panay and Negros islands. Beyond 2030, the Luzon-Visayas HVDC system will be upgraded to double its transfer capacity to 880 MW, allowing the sharing of excess generation among all three grids. Additional projects will be undertaken to facilitate the integration of large power plants in the identified CREZ areas in Panay, Negros, Samar and Bohol islands. This will require extending the main backbone towards southern Panay, Negros Occidental, Leyte to northern Samar and from Bohol to Leyte, and reinforcement of the 230 kV backbone lines.
In Mindanao, the plan focuses on extending the 230 kV, 138 kV and 69 kV networks and upgrading and expanding several substations, such as the Laguindingan, Koronadal and Kabacan substations. In the long run, 230 kV projects (initially energised at 138 kV) will be undertaken to complete the 230 kV loop in the eastern part of the Mindanao grid.
RES integration
To mitigate challenges such as intermittent operation, grid instability and voltage fluctuations posed by increasing RES capacity, BESSs are essential, in addition to transmission upgrades. While the NGCP initially identified BESS as an ancillary service, future studies will assess BESS for transmission congestion relief and upgrade deferment as required by the DOE’s circular (2023-04-0008). As per the latest TDP, over 1.8 GW of committed capacity and 2.5 GW of indicative BESS capacity is proposed across three regions in the Philippines. The NGCP also plans to deploy advanced grid technologies such as real-time monitoring and adaptive control systems to improve grid responsiveness, grid-forming inverters, synchronous condensers and static synchronous compensators to maintain voltage and frequency stability.
Conclusion
Grid modernisation will help the Philippines meet its rising demand and sustainability goals. The TDP provides a roadmap for the country’s energy transition as it aims to increase the use of RES for generation and extend grid interconnections to different islands. With the recent stake acquisition in the NGCP, the government can push the company forward to deliver the TDP through a strong project pipeline, ensuring a reliable, affordable and clean energy supply.
