By Sarthak Takyar
It was clear from the beginning that the 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) held in Dubai, UAE, from November 30, 2023 to December 12, 2023 would be controversial. Energy crises and heightened tensions were already present in the diplomatic community due to conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Moreover, this year’s summit was held in an oil- and gas-rich country and was presided over by Sultan Ahmed Al-Jaber, who is head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. Concerns of conflicts of interest and greenwashing persisted among climate enthusiasts. To make things worse, a letter was leaked in which the secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries asked its members to reject any discourse on fossil fuel phase-out. Despite the pessimism after such events, COP28 did deliver on several aspects, although expectations were higher.
After literally burning the midnight oil, the UAE Consensus was finally negotiated and released. The first-ever “Global Stocktake” (pledged by nearly 200 countries) is a key component of the UAE Consensus. It maps the progress (or lack thereof) made since the Paris Agreement and outlines strategies to close implementation gaps by 2030. The most discussed decision involves transitioning away from fossil fuels, not phasing them out. The UAE Consensus states that this transition should occur “in a just, orderly and equitable manner in this critical decade to enable the world to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, in keeping with the science”. The usage of the word “science” is interesting, given the controversy surrounding it. In an interview in November 2023, COP28’s president stated that there is no scientific evidence suggesting that phasing out fossil fuels is necessary to keep global warming under a critical threshold. Later, Al-Jaber clarified that his comments were misinterpreted, and he believed that the phase-down/out of fossil fuels is inevitable.
Other key positive decisions in the consensus include the global tripling of renewables capacity and doubling of energy efficiency by 2030. Additionally, there are plans to significantly scale up adaptation finance beyond doubling to meet urgent and evolving needs, and a call for countries to deliver their National Adaptation Plans by 2025 and implement them by 2030. Further, efforts are under way to establish a new global climate finance architecture, to be delivered at COP29.
The first day of COP28 itself was newsworthy. An agreement was facilitated to operationalise the Loss and Damage Fund, and by the end of the summit, financial commitments for this fund reached $792 million. In total, COP28 has mobilised more than $85 billion in funding and includes commitments towards the various funds. In addition, the UAE launched the world’s largest private market climate investment fund, with a total value of $30 billion.
The COP28 presidency had set four pillars: fast-tracking a just, orderly and equitable energy transition; fixing climate finance; focusing on people, lives and livelihoods; and underpinning everything with full inclusivity. The following sections summarise the key developments under the first two pillars.
Fast-tracking a just, orderly and equitable energy transition
The Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge was launched under this pillar and endorsed by 132 countries. According to the pledge, signatories will collaborate to triple the world’s installed renewable energy generation capacity to at least 11,000 GW by 2030. In addition, it aims to collectively double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from around 2 per cent to over 4 per cent every year until 2030. In terms of funds, $5 billion was mobilised to facilitate the implementation of the pledge globally, including supporting the deployment of renewables in the Global South, according to the consensus. Meanwhile, the countries in the Latin American and Caribbean Renewables Hub have raised their target for renewable energy in total electricity generation from 70 per cent to 80 per cent by 2030, with aims to reach at least 36 per cent share of renewable energy in the total energy supply by 2030.
The Global Cooling Pledge, also launched under this pillar, aims to reduce cooling-related emissions across all sectors by at least 68 per cent globally, relative to 2022 levels, by 2050. Another key launch was the Mutual Recognition of Certification Schemes for Renewable and Low-Carbon Hydrogen and Hydrogen Derivatives, which aims to foster mutual recognition of respective certification schemes on low-carbon hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives.
In a summit organised by one of the largest producers of crude oil, it was symbolic that 52 signatories (representing 40 per cent of the global oil and gas production) committed to the Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter, to commit to net zero operations by 2050 at the latest, ending routine flaring by 2030 and achieving near zero upstream methane emissions. In addition, endorsed by 35 companies, the Industrial Transition Accelerator aims to catalyse decarbonisation across heavy-emitting sectors, including energy, industry and transportation.
In the thermal power segment, several national and subnational governments joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance. This alliance will work to advance the transition from unabated coal power generation to clean energy. In an effort to share expertise, design new policies through best practices and lessons learned, and unlock new sources of public and private financing to facilitate just transitions from coal to clean energy, the Coal Transition Accelerator was launched. A significant development was witnessed in the nuclear energy space – the newly launched Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy aims to triple nuclear energy capacity globally by 2050.
To promote electrification, renewable-ready grids and clean energy deployment, in line with the goals of the 2030 Breakthroughs, the Utilities for Net-Zero Alliance was launched, comprising 31 partners, including 25 global utilities and power companies. In addition, new 2030 Breakthroughs on methane reduction in the oil and gas sector and on electrification were launched.
To decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors, the Cement and Concrete Breakthrough was launched by Canada and the UAE. It aims to accelerate industry decarbonisation by sharing best practices, working on policy and standards and fostering innovation in emerging areas such as carbon capture, storage/utilisation, and circular economy.
In the shipping industry, several companies have joined the Cargo Owners for Zero Emission Vessels, a collaborative platform to drive ambition and action toward zero emissions in ocean transport. Moreover, the Green Maritime Africa Coalition promoted the supply and use of zero-emission fuels in Africa’s maritime sector, in line with the International Maritime Organization’s 2050 decarbonisation plan. In addition, 30 stakeholders in the shipping sector signed a joint commitment at COP28 to facilitate the use of renewable hydrogen-derived shipping fuel within this decade to meet maritime industry decarbonisation targets.
Fixing climate finance
The issue of fixing climate finance remains the most contentious topic during every COP. It is this topic for which these summits are often criticised for the lack of progress. At COP28, several reports were published, highlighting the opportunities for improvement in the climate financing space and providing insights on how to bridge the gap. In addition, various national governments and organisations made commitments to climate finance across various funds, including the Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund, Least Developed Countries Fund and Special Climate Change Fund. The UAE Leaders’ Declaration on a Global Climate Finance Framework was endorsed by 13 national governments. The framework will work to unlock the investment potential of climate finance through collective action, inclusive opportunities and delivering at scale.
Moreover, the Joint Declaration and Task Force on Credit Enhancement of Sustainability-Linked Sovereign Financing for Nature and Climate was also endorsed by multilateral development banks and international organisations such as the Green Climate Fund and the Global Environment Facility in a bid to reform the international financial architecture. The declaration aims to respond to the needs of developing countries by providing long-term fiscal solutions.
Critique
Behind the positivity exuberated in the UAE Consensus and press releases provided by the UN lies a reality that suggests the progress made at COP28 is not as impressive as portrayed. Over the past year, there have been passionate discussions from climate enthusiasts on the phase-out of coal. However, this did not materialise. The target was diluted and the goal is now to just transition away from fossil fuels. This could potentially enable member countries to find loopholes and continue exploiting fossil fuels, and perhaps even use carbon capture technologies alongside. For Indian policymakers, the dilution may work in their favour, given the country’s continued dependence on coal.
Stakeholders, especially from developing countries, attend COP summits not to benefit from smart use of vocabulary but to address real climate issues. These countries are eager to know and negotiate the extent to which the developed world can commit to financial support for developing nations. Therefore, the commitments under various funds, especially the Loss and Damage Fund, are important. The financial commitment of $792 million under this fund falls short of the actual climate finance needed across the developing world. To put things into perspective, India’s green finance requirement, in order to meet its Nationally Determined Contribution alone is $170 billion per year, according to the Climate Policy Initiative. There are various estimates for the climate funds required globally, with the number usually ranging over $500 billion, well above the pledges made at COP28. The pledged amount is even lower than the $100 billion per year that the developing world had long been waiting for. Moreover, the funds have only been pledged, there is no guarantee of when or if they will actually reach the ground and have an impact. Further, there have been concerns around the World Bank administering the Loss and Damage Fund on broadly two grounds – one, the high commission they have been charging to carry out the task, and two, the potential bureaucratic delays while dealing with the bank, especially when quick funds are needed after a climate-induced natural disaster.
A key catch in the Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter is that the companies (representing 40 per cent of the oil and gas production) pledged to become carbon-free only in their direct operations, rather than addressing the carbon footprint associated with the use of their products by consumers. Meanwhile, companies representing the remaining 60 per cent have conveniently avoided the commitment to invest in green technologies.
Overall, the influence of the fossil fuel lobby at the summit was evident, and this is reflected in the global stocktake. While it is a positive development that the first global stocktake urges parties to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions as soon as possible, critics worry that there will be no progress in this space as the statement is toothless. The stocktake also specifies accelerating, among other technologies, “abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture and utilisation and storage, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, and low-carbon hydrogen production”. Furthermore, it states that “transitional fuels” can play a role in facilitating energy transition while ensuring energy security. Critics worry that carbon capture technologies are a gateway to greenwashing and “transitional fuels”, a euphemism for gas, will assist fossil fuel players and dependent economies.
India’s fossil fuel players must be pleased with the final text as it suits their interests, and perhaps the country’s needs as well. Another positive for India is that the stocktake notes that the peaking of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020-2025 is not implied for all countries (in the modelled pathway that aims to limit warming to 2°C and assumes immediate action). It also states that the “time frames for peaking may be shaped by sustainable development, poverty eradication needs and equity considerations, and be in line with different national circumstances.”
Despite criticisms of the progress made at COP28, it should be noted that what may be considered a failure to act boldly on climate mitigation by one can be seen as a balanced and practical approach by another. Therefore, it is commendable that the UAE Consensus was released, and for this, the presidency should be appreciated indeed. But, as always, implementation of the commitments made will be key going forward.
The controversies surrounding COP summits are not expected to diminish soon, the next year’s COP29 will be hosted in another petrostate – Azerbaijan.
