India’s energy landscape is undergoing a structural transformation, with electricity set to play a much larger role across the economy. This shift brings into focus a broader question: how can the country build an energy system that is simultaneously clean, affordable and secure from geopolitical conflicts? At India Infrastructure Forum 2026, Alok Brara, Publisher, Renewable Watch, interacted with Shishir Priyadarshi, President, Chintan Research Foundation (CRF), to discuss India’s transition from a petro-dependent state to an electrostate. Priyadarshi highlighted the need to balance energy security, affordability and decarbonisation, and address challenges related to transmission, energy storage and supply chain resilience. He also shared his views on electrification and India’s energy priorities for 2047. Edited excerpts…
How do you view India’s prospects for shifting from a petro-dependent state to an electrostate?
It is clear that we are moving from a petro-dependent state towards an electrostate. However, the transition needs to be approached with the lessons learnt from the hydrocarbon journey. One of the biggest lessons is the risk associated with the dependence on concentrated supply chains. While hydrocarbons are geographically widespread, the supply chains for many critical materials required for the energy transition are much more concentrated. For instance, rare earths, lithium, cobalt and nickel are concentrated in a limited number of countries. India therefore needs to pursue the energy transition while maintaining a strong focus on energy security and affordability. The last thing we want is to move from one form of dependence to another.
How should India balance energy security, affordability and decarbonisation?
India needs to chart its own path. My experience at the World Trade Organization showed me how developing countries are often told what they should do. In the past, India has been frequently advised to reduce tariffs and open its markets. Today, India has a stronger economic position and greater ability to determine its own path. Preserving the planet for future generations is extremely important, but it cannot come at the cost of the developmental aspirations of the present. India has set the goal of becoming a developed country by 2047 and achieving net zero emissions by 2070. Thus, the energy transition must also support economic development.
India currently has around 500 GW of power generation capacity, approximately 300 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity and approximately 250 GW of fossil fuel capacity. Power capacity requirement could increase to around 2,500 GW by 2047, based simply on the kind of per capita electricity consumption seen in developed countries. All of this cannot come from renewable energy alone. Therefore, energy security, energy affordability and sustainability need to be considered together.
What could derail India’s energy transition?
There are several risks, including geopolitics, supply chain vulnerabilities, availability of critical minerals, inadequate infrastructure and the overall cost of the transition. It is difficult to anticipate every possible challenge, but transmission, storage and supply chains are among the key areas that need attention. Transmission is particularly important. India has added solar capacity at a very rapid pace and now has around 200 GW of solar capacity. The timelines for developing generation and transmission have changed significantly. Around two decades ago it could take about five years to build a thermal power plant and a similar period to establish the transmission infrastructure required to evacuate its power. Today, a solar power project can be completed in about one and a half years. Therefore, transmission planning needs to begin much earlier, ideally around three years before the construction of the solar project. The second major issue is storage. Storage cannot be viewed only in terms of batteries. India will need a range of storage technologies. The third issue is supply chain vulnerability. The experience of the hydrocarbon sector underscores the importance of diversification. India needs to reduce its dependence on concentrated sources of critical minerals.
Recent policy efforts to incentivise critical mineral mining in India are a step in this direction, but developing domestic capacity will take time. Until then, India may need to diversify its sources even if some alternatives cost more than the most competitive market option. The objective should be to build greater resilience across the critical parts of the energy system.
Which sectors should India focus on for electrification?
In India, electricity accounts for about 22 per cent of its overall energy mix, while the remaining 78 per cent is in the form of molecules. One approach is to first move from molecules to electrons and then gradually move towards green energy. Ideally, India needs to increase the share of electricity significantly, potentially towards 50 per cent over the longer term. Electrification is relevant across mobility, district cooling and several other sectors. However, India should focus on the most difficult areas first. The hard-to-abate sectors, particularly cement and steel, would be among the key areas for electrification. If India can address electrification in these sectors, many of the easier applications are likely to follow. This will not be easy because infrastructure requirements in these sectors are different. Over time, the objective would also be to move beyond electrification towards green energy applications, including green hydrogen and green ammonia.
India also needs to make effective use of its existing domestic resources. The country has significant coal reserves, and coal will continue to play a role in meeting its development needs. The government has introduced initiatives to promote coal gasification that can help reduce imports and therefore contribute to energy security.
Given the pace at which India is progressing towards its 2047 and 2070 goals, it will need to pursue multiple pathways simultaneously.
What will be the role of energy storage in the energy transition?
Storage will be essential as renewable energy capacity increases. The rapid decline in the cost of solar generation over the past decade shows how quickly technology costs can change. A similar evolution could take place in storage. However, storage should not be equated only with batteries. Pumped storage will be important, while green hydrogen could also provide a long-term storage option. The scale of the challenge is already visible. The lack of adequate storage and transmission has resulted in significant renewable energy being curtailed. India has done substantial work to increase renewable energy generation. The next major focus areas must be storage and transmission.
What should India achieve by 2047?
India should be ambitious in what it wants to achieve by 2047. There are three areas that I would like the country to prioritise.
The first is domestic production. India is geographically dependent on maritime trade, with around 90 per cent of its imports and exports taking place by sea. From an energy security perspective, a large part of India’s energy production should therefore be domestic and based on resources that can be produced or mined within the country. Second, wherever India needs to rely on imports, the sources should be as diversified as possible. Excessive dependence on a particular region or route can create significant risks during geopolitical disruptions. Third, greater attention needs to be given to the demand side. Energy efficiency and intelligent use of clean energy are often overlooked. Consumers also have a role in ensuring that clean and green energy is used efficiently.
What are the CRF’s key priorities going forward?
CRF has three broad pillars of work. The first and foremost is climate change, energy transition and sustainability. A key focus within this area is bringing a strong Global South perspective to the climate and energy transition debate. Our approach is practical and realistic, with an emphasis on balancing development and sustainability. The developmental aspirations of 1.4 billion people need to be addressed without losing focus on the net zero goal. The second area is global economy and trade. With the increasing number of free trade agreements, this has become an important area of work. Signing a free trade agreement is only the beginning. Its implementation is what ultimately determines whether the Indian industry gets better market access. The third area is geopolitics and strategic studies. This complements the other two areas because climate change, energy transition, trade and the global economy all have significant international dimensions. Within geopolitics, we are focusing on regions that have received relatively less attention from Indian academia and think tanks. This includes the Pacific Island states, Latin America and the Caribbean, and French-speaking Africa. At the same time, our work also covers broader areas such as BRICS, the G20 and Europe. Our focus across these three areas is to build practical, research-based perspectives on India’s development, energy transition, economy and international engagement.
